The Iran Scenarios

by Alan Caruba

These days you can read as many different scenarios regarding the likelihood that Israel will attack Iran’s nuclear facilities as there are experts putting them forth. History, past and present, may have already written the script.

....Militarily, Iran would prove to be an extremely difficult nation to invade or conquer. Thus, an Israeli strike would be limited to destroying or at least significantly delaying Iran’s nuclear weapons ambitions. At issue is when Iran would be capable of manufacturing and delivering its own nukes.

The next question to be answered is what benefit Iran’s leaders would perceive in launching a nuclear attack on Israel? Any use of nuclear weapons by any nation would come with a huge price. Iran is already a pariah nation despite its oil.

Since 1979 the Iran government has deemed the U.S. the Big Satan and Israel the Little Satan. When people spend nearly 30 years shouting “Death to America” and “Death to Israel”, history teaches that it is folly to ignore them or to suggest reasons to believe that it’s just bluster....

An Israeli attack, if followed by the collapse of the Iranian regime, would likely result in a relatively brief disruption in the flow of oil from the Middle East. The opening of the Strait of Harmuz would become an international priority, nor is the U.S. likely to be seriously affected because it imports much of its oil from Canada, Central and South America. It would surely increase the growing demands to open up ANWR in Alaska and authorization of off-shore oil exploration.....

A new government, even one led by Benjamin "Bibi" Netanyahu, is not likely to take on the huge risks involved in an attack on Iran without explicit reassurances of U.S. approval and possible involvement. The problem for Israel is that such an attack would trigger war by a heavily rearmed Hezbollah based in Lebanon and a Gaza-based Hamas.

The irony is that all of Iran’s Arab neighbors would love to see Iran removed as an obstacle to peace in the region. Moreover, Iran represents Shiite Islam whereas other Muslim nations with the exception of Iraq are the majority Sunni sect. No love loss there.

Speculation will exist as long as the ayatollahs and the crazed Mahmoud Ahmadinejad remain in power. In the end, like the sudden invasion of Georgia, the issue will be resolved by action, not talk.