Iran Would Need One Year to Produce Bomb-Grade Uranium, Expert Says

Source: Global Security Newswire

Iran would need at least a year to produce enough weapon-grade uranium for a nuclear-weapon from its existing stocks of low-enriched material, the London Telegraph reported today (see GSN, Jan. 27).

Tehran insists it only intends to produce low-enriched uranium for use in civilian nuclear power plants. The United States and other Western powers have demanded that Iran halt its enrichment program because Tehran might continue enriching the uranium until it is suitable for use in a bomb, according to the International Institute of Strategic Studies.

"This year, it's very likely that Iran will have produced enough low-enriched uranium which, if further enriched, could constitute enough fissile material for one nuclear weapon, if that is the route Iran so desires," said Mark Fitzpatrick, a nonproliferation expert at the think thank.

Iran would need another 12 months for the actual conversion. First, it must address various technical issues and become more adept at the enrichment process, according to the Telegraph.

If Tehran decided to enrich uranium to weapon-grade levels, it would have to ban U.N. inspectors who monitor Iranian nuclear sites to ensure they are not diverting material to military programs. The expulsion of the inspectors would signal a problem to the international community, giving it some time to react.

In addition, Iran would have to prepare missiles to accommodate nuclear warheads in order to establish a credible deterrent, according to the Telegraph. Alleged Iranian records held by the International Atomic Energy Agency suggest Tehran has attempted to modify its Shahab 3 missile to carry a nuclear payload (David Blair, London Telegraph, Jan. 28).

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton yesterday said that "there is a clear opportunity for the Iranians ... to demonstrate some willingness to engage meaningfully with the international community" on the nuclear standoff, the New York Times reported.

Clinton declined to discuss what new strategies Washington is considering to engage Iran, but suggested that she and President Barack Obama are considering a range of options. She also referred to ongoing talks between the five permanent U.N. Security Council member nations and Germany, which are set to resume next week. European diplomats expressed optimism that the Obama administration would begin to reveal elements of his Iran strategy at that session.

The administration is likely to appoint veteran Middle East envoy Dennis Ross to a key Iran policy position, State Department officials said.

Financial pressure is making Tehran increasingly likely to cooperate with the United States and its allies, said Abbas Milani, Iranian studies head at Stanford University.

“The Iranian regime is in a truly desperate situation,” Milani said. “The regime is in a much more amenable mood because the economy is in a shambles. They’re also dealing with someone whose name is Barack Hussein Obama" (Mark Landler, New York Times, Jan. 28).

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad today called on Obama to pursue policy shifts more significant than mere tactical changes, Reuters reported.

"We welcome change but on condition that change is fundamental and on the right track," he told supporters, adding that any policy change that only alters tactics would "soon be revealed" (Zahra Hosseinian, Reuters, Jan. 28).

Meanwhile, Iran yesterday brushed off a Japanese call to halt its uranium enrichment program, Agence France-Presse reported.

At a meeting in Tokyo, Japanese Foreign Minister Hirofumi Nakasone told an Iranian diplomat that suspending the effort would "win the trust of the international community." Iranian envoy Samareh Hashemi responded by reaffirming Tehran's insistence that its nuclear program has no military component (Agence France-Presse/Spacewar.com, Jan. 28).

Former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder plans to "amplify and underline" his nation's stand on the nuclear issue during a visit next month to Iran, Bloomberg reported Monday.

“The nuclear dossier will play an important role” in the trip, said German Foreign Ministry spokesman Jens Ploetner (Rainer Buergin, Bloomberg, Jan. 26).