Al Qaeda’s Surge in Algeria

(Compiler's note: A long, but interesting analysis. Just click on the title to go to the original article.)

J.Peter Pham, PhD

Over the course of the last few weeks, al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) has undertaken a surge operation of its own, so to speak. As I reported more than a year ago, AQIM has its origins in Algeria’s Islamist insurgency of the 1990s, a conflict that left at least 200,000 people dead. And, as I noted four months ago, since the hardcore elements of the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (usually known by its French acronym GSPC, Groupe Salafiste pour la Prédication et le Combat) formally pledged their allegiance to Osama bin Laden two years ago and rebranded their organization al Qaeda’s franchise in the subregion, it has been responsible a number of spectacular attacks, including the attempted assassination of Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika one year ago this week and the bombing of the United Nations offices in downtown Algiers last December. However, with the recent spate of attacks the question arises as to whether or not what is being observed is not just heightened activity, but an altogether new phase in a broader insurgency targeting not just the Algerian government, but also other countries in the region and beyond.

The following is a partial list of attacks in Algeria carried out by AQIM in the course of the last month: ....

Consider that Algeria currently supplies Europe with approximately 15% of the continent’s natural gas consumption and is also an important petroleum producer, pumping about 1.46 million barrels of oil daily. With recent Russian actions underscoring Europe’s dependence on imported energy, any disruption of the Algerian hydrocarbon exports would have a devastating impact on European economies. (During the first six months of this year, Algeria also exported a monthly average of 16.24 million barrels of oil to the United States, making it America’s seventh most important foreign supplier.)