A new wave of nuclear proliferation

....‘Extended deterrence — having one country protect another by promising to go to nuclear war on its behalf — is no longer credible, now that the US homeland can be hit by missiles fired, for example, from China.’

....What is not in doubt, I suspect, is the will of the smaller countries feeling the threat. It may seem odd for Ukraine to have nuclear weapons when Germany does not, or for Vietnam to have them when Japan does not — but such possibilities exist.

They will have the effect of tying both Russia and China down strategically. Far from becoming freer players internationally, they are weaving nets that will constrain themselves. Europe will be faced with the choice of developing her own self-sufficient military force or being at Moscow’s mercy. Small ententes may develop where threatened countries cooperate. Headaches for Washington will become severe, however, only if the US chooses to jump into the midst of all this. The US has the option of working at the edges, offshore, and through a few key allies.

Things have taken a sudden and unexpected turn for the worse. It is the result of a failure of Moscow to understand her own interests (just as the Asian situation flows from Beijing’s similar incapacity). The Greeks gave us an overused image that, however, fits this case perfectly: opening Pandora’s box.