Thursday, July 24, 2008

Tehran's winning streak

... The nuclear talks are going nowhere, and that's a good thing for the Iranian regime, because time is on its side. Today, without nuclear weapons, Iran has been extraordinarily successful at projecting power throughout the Middle East. Although the U.S. troop surge has for now blunted Iran's efforts to subvert Iraq, Tehran is ascendant almost everywhere else in the region. In Afghanistan, its allies in al Qaeda and the Taliban have stepped up their efforts to overthrow that nascent democracy. In Lebanon, Iran's proxy Hezbollah fought Israel, the Middle East's regional superpower, to a draw in their 2006 war. In May, Hezbollah staged a coup, leaving it the dominant political power in Lebanon. Last week, the terrorist organization achieved a huge political triumph when Israel freed Lebanese terrorist Samir Kuntar in a prisoner exchange. Iran and Syria have replenished the Hezbollah weaponry that Israel destroyed in the 2006 war, and Hezbollah has rebuilt its elaborate system of military fortifications throughout Southern Lebanon. The Israeli military believes Hezbollah has deployed upgraded anti-aircraft missiles that could enable it to shoot down Israeli warplanes over Lebanon.

Last summer, Iran's ally Hamas staged a coup that made it the absolute ruler of Gaza - which it has turned into a launching pad for rocket attacks in Israel. In January, Hamas demonstrated its ability to undermine stability in Egypt by destroying part of the border fence with Gaza and permitting hundreds of thousands of people to pour across the border into the Sinai Peninsula. And Iran has dispatched Hezbollah trainers to Gaza to assist Hamas.

All of this is occurring at a time when Iran lacks nuclear weapons. But, here again, time is on the mullahs' side. Iran is betting that it can successfully continue to stall the nuclear talks until it eventually gets nuclear weapons - and with them the ability to deter its mortal enemies: The United States and Israel.

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