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Reports that North Korean leader Kim Jong Il is suffering significant health problems have raised concerns about the future of diplomatic efforts to eliminate his nation’s nuclear arsenal, the Associated Press reported today (see GSN, Sept. 9).
Kim has not made any public appearances since last month and did not show up this week for the military parade marking his nation’s 60th anniversary.
“There is reason to believe Kim Jong Il has suffered a serious health setback, possibly a stroke,” according to one Western intelligence source (Hess/Lee, Associated Press I/Yahoo!News, Sept. 10).
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
Kim’s Reported Illness Raises Concerns on North Korean Nukes
U.S. Increases Reliance on Drones in Bin Laden Hunt
Al Qaeda declares Coptic priest Zakaria Botros "one of the most wanted infidels in the world"
And offers 60 million for his head. More on Islam's Public Enemy #1. "Exclusive: Al Qaeda targets leading Arab evangelist operating in the U.S. for preaching the Gospel to Muslims," by Joel C. Rosenberg for Flashtraffic, September 9 (thanks to Erick):
You have probably never heard of Father Zakaria Botros. But you need to know his story. He is far and away the most-watched and most-effective Arab-American evangelist focused on reaching the Muslim world, and by far the most controversial. The Rush Limbaugh of the Revivalists, he is funny, feisty, brilliant, opinionated, and provocative. But rather than preaching the gospel of conservatism, he is preaching the gospel of Jesus Christ. And his enemies do not simply want to silence him. They want to assassinate him.Last week, I had the honor of interviewing Botros by phone from a secure, undisclosed location in the United States, where he now resides. He told me that he had just learned that an al Qaeda website had posted his photograph and named him one of the "most wanted" infidels in the world. The Radicals have even put a bounty on his head. The Christian Broadcasting Network reported the figure was as high as $60 million. Botros does not know for certain. But just to put that in context, the U.S. bounty on Osama bin Laden's head is "only" $25 million.
Why are the Radicals so enraged by an elderly Coptic priest from Egypt who is in his 70s? Because Botros is waging an air war against them, and he is winning.
Using state-of-the art satellite technology to bypass the efforts of Islamic governments to keep the gospel out of their countries, Botros is directly challenging the claims of Muhammad to be a prophet, and the claims of the Qu'ran to be God's word. He systematically deconstructs Muhammad's life, story by story, pointing out character flaws and sinful behavior. He carefully deconstructs the Qu'ran, verse by verse, citing contradictions and inconsistencies. And not only does he explain without apology what he believes is wrong with Islam, he goes on to teach Muslims from the Bible why Jesus loves them and why is so ready to forgive them and adopt them into His family, no matter who they are or what they have done.
If Botros was doing this in a corner, or on some cable access channel where no one saw him or cared, that would be one thing. But his ninety-minute program - a combination of preaching, teaching and answering questions from (often irate) callers all over the world - has become "must see TV" throughout the Muslim world. It is replayed four times a week in Arabic, his native language, on a satellite television network called Al Hayat ("Life TV.") It can be seen in every country in North Africa, Middle East, Central Asia, as well as all throughout North America,Europe, Australia, and New Zealand. And not only can it be seen in so many places, it is seen - by an estimated fifty million Muslims a day.
At the same time, Botros is getting millions of hits on his multiple web sites in multiple languages. There, Muslims can read his sermons and study through an archive of answers to frequently asked questions. They can also enter a live chat room called "Pal Chat" where they are not only permitted but encouraged to ask their toughest questions to trained on-line counselors, many of whom are Muslim converts to Christianity who understand exactly where the questioners are coming from and the struggles they are having.
As a result, Botros - on the air only since 2003 - has practically become a household word in the Muslim world. An Arabic newspaper has named him Islam's "Public Enemy #1." Millions hate him, to be sure, but they are watching. They are listening. They are processing what he is saying and they are talking about him with their friends and family. When Botros challenges Radical clerics to answer his many refutations of Islam and defend the Qu'ran, millions wait to see how the fundamentalists will respond. But they rarely do. They prefer to attack Botros than answer him. Yet, the more the Radicals attack him, the more well-known he becomes. The more well-known he becomes, the more Muslims feel compelled to tune in. And as more Muslims tune in, more are coming to the conclusion that Botros is right and in turn are choosing to become followers of Jesus Christ. Botros estimates at least 1,000 Muslims a month pray to receive Christ with his telephone counselors. Some of them pray to receive Christ live on their air with Botros. And this surely is only the tip of the iceberg, as it represents only those who are able to get through on the jammed phone lines. There simply are not currently enough trained counselors to handle each call.
[...]He does not believe all Muslims are Radicals, but he does believe all Muslims are spiritually lost, and he wants desperately to help them find their way to forgiveness and reconciliation with the God who made them and loves them.
"I believe this is the hand of God," Botros told me. "He is directing me. He shows me what to say. He shows me what to write on…the web sites. He is showing me more and more how to use the technology to reach people with his message of redemption."
Attack code released for SCADA software vulnerability
Security researcher Kevin Finisterre has created an exploit that takes advantage of a serious vulnerability reported earlier this summer in widely deployed industrial process control software.
The bug in CitectSCADA, which was patched in early June after being discovered by Core Security Technologies, is a traditional stack-based buffer overflow. It could grant an attacker access over supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) software that controls industrial processes, including oil and gas pipelines, chemical plants, assembly lines and power grids.
"I honestly feel that the flaw has the potential to be very critical," Finisterre, who works for security firm Netragard, said in an email Monday to SCMagazineUS.com. "That is the main reason for my secondary disclosure. I don't think this bug got the proper exposure the first time around."
He said Citect, whose U.S. headquarters is in Georgia, downplayed the severity of the flaw.
But Kurt Lovell, vice president of Citect Americas, told SCMagazineUS.com on Monday that the company advises its customers to take every security matter seriously.
"With respect to our install base, [Finisterre is] making it significantly easier for someone who wanted to do harm to try to do harm," Lovell said. "That said, we're not particularly concerned because we have already worked aggressively with our install base to make sure they're protected."
At the time of the vulnerability, experts said they expected similar bugs to arise in the near future.
"The recent discovery of a critical SCADA system vulnerability is another classic example of the inherent risks and vulnerabilities that exist within the industrial control system and SCADA environment," said Brian Ahern, president and CEO of Industrial Defender, provider of industrial control system security solutions.
"The reality is that these systems were never designed for cybersecurity in mind and today they are being openly connected to the outside world even though many vendors are advising against this level of connectivity," Ahern added. "As a result of the need for real-time business information, it is becoming increasingly popular for the plant network to connect with enterprise networks and the open internet."
Lovell said Citect's customers are responding to SCADA's evolution by implementing security protocols.
"They aren't blindly ignoring the security risks as interconnectivity welcomed the world," he said.
Finisterre said he leveraged the Metasploit hacker framework to create the exploit.
"I essentially took the general information that was available at the time and gazed into my debugger for many hours trying to understand how things worked," he said
How To: Zap Bombs Before They Blow Up
A combination of technology and tactics has cut the number of improvised bomb attacks in Iraq by more than 50%. Some of the gear blocks triggering signals, before they can set an explosive off; some protects troops from blasts' impact; some looks for bombs' signature, in the trash and dirt that line Baghdad's roads. But perhaps the least-discussed gadgets are ones that blow up improvised explosive devices, or IEDs, before they're supposed to strike.
IEEE Spectrum, in an exhaustive feature on the tech of Iraq's IED war, looks at exactly this kind of gear:
A type of “predetonator” used in Iraq emits a strong electromagnetic pulse that wrecks the integrated circuits in the cellphone or other appliance that triggers an IED. The pulse comes from a very high voltage capacitor discharging very suddenly. When its ICs are zapped, the trigger might “fail open”—with no explosion—or it might “fail closed,” detonating the IED...
More sophisticated predetonators are said to mimic the signals of the IEDs’ triggering devices in order to set them off...
An article in the 25 March edition of The Scotsman newspaper... said that U.S. forces in Iraq and Afghanistan were using specially equipped Vietnam-era EA-6B Prowler aircraft to clear roads for convoys by transmitting appropriate signals to predetonate IEDs.
But how much impact has this or any equipment had on the bomb fight, really? At the Pentagon, much of the credit has been given to better training -- and better inflitration of the bomb-planting networks. And in Afghanistan (where, presumably, U.S. forces use the same tech), IEDs are way, way up.
Pentagon delays $35B Air Force tanker decision
WASHINGTON, D.C. — The Defense Department will wait until the next administration to award a disputed $35 billion contract to build a new fleet of aerial refueling tankers.
Rep. Norm Dicks, D-Wash., says the Pentagon has canceled the latest round of bidding between Boeing Co. and Northrop Grumman Corp. for the 179 planes, and now plans to hold a new competition next year. ....
Teacher fights to post Declaration of Independence quote
Honor the troops: Beat Murtha!
John "Jack" Murtha has represented Pennsylvania's 12th Congressional District for 36 years! How could someone last that long who was an unindicted co-conspirator in the Abscam scandal of the early 1980s, who is the most egregious serial abuser in the House of Representatives of what is known as the "earmark" scandal, and whose false accusations triggered a career-ending witch hunt of eight brave Marines merely for partisan purposes?
The answer is quite simple: John Murtha "gets away with it" by subverting the Democratic process through what is commonly referred to as "the power of the incumbent." It consists of three main components collectively referred to as the "Incumbent Protection Act": 1) the awarding of "safe political districts"; 2) the use of special legislation, "entitlements" and "earmarks," which benefit (bribe) certain constituents who 3) express their "quid pro quo gratitude" with votes and campaign contributions. Those three factors have worked synergisticly to corrupt the entire body politic until we not only have out-of-control government, but much of the country seems to want more of the same.
Incumbents have crossed the line from legitimate partisan politics to now exercising the "power of the incumbent" as an unconstitutional usurpation ("to hold an office without legal right," Dictionary.com) because, since 1990, almost all state legislative and federal congressional districts are computer gerrymandered to guarantee the preservation of "The Incumbent Status Quo" for five election cycles, or 10 years!
Let the meaning of that phrase sink in. When incumbents conspire to guarantee the preservation of "The Incumbent Status Quo" for five election cycles, they are overtly working against the people's right choose their representatives in competitive elections where they have the option to hear and choose a viable challenger every two years. Having a "safe district" means safe from voters hearing and choosing a challenger. The key phrase is "safe from voters." The incumbent's slogan is: "Make every district a safe district" – and they have succeeded. ....
John Murtha is a caricature of all that is wrong in politics today. He deserves the honor of being this movement's first project and namesake "poster child" to focus voter outrage and to direct it, just as a military special forces unit attacks an enemy's critical point to have a decisive effect on its larger army.
The negative "poster child" is John Murtha, his face framed by the shameful shape of his diseased-looking congressional district as seen in the accompanying image and worn on the T-shirts and caps of supporters to promote this reform movement. Those supporters will also contribute to the success of the positive "poster child," Murtha's challenger, William "the dragon slayer" Russell. Lt. Col. Russell is ready, willing and able. However, he needs the support of everyone who would like to solve this national embarrassment, and he needs that help right now.
"Honor the troops, www.BeatMurtha.com."
Click here for additional information -- watch the short video.
Letter to Condoleezza Rice Demanding Answers from State Department Concerning Iran
Rep. Sue Myrick (R-NC), co-chair of the 120-member, bipartisan House Anti-Terrorism/Jihad Caucus and a tireless promoter of educating the public about the dangers that Islamic Jihad poses to America, recently sent a letter to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice about the UN personnel from five countries, including Iran, that the State Department has designated as State Sponsors of Terrorism:
Member of Congress
As Family Security Matters informed you earlier this year, Myrick's impressive "Wake Up America" agenda aims to reverse the trend of public complacency about the dangers of Islamic Jihad due to the fact that we have not been attacked since 9/11. Myrick wants to "explain to people what the roadblocks are" regarding the fight against terrorism here in America.
Terrorism is not a partisan issue, but an issue critical to all Americans, and you can count on Family Security Matters to continue to bring you the latest on Myrick's activities and other information you need regarding these vital concerns.
UK Jury Ruling on Jihadists Ignores Plot to Bomb Transatlantic Jets Headed to America
On September 8, 2008, a British jury ruling on the transatlantic airline terror plotters decided that three of eight plotters were guilty of conspiracy of murder.
However, this British jury ruling had nothing to do with their actual plots to bomb transatlantic jets destined for American and Canadian cities. The British jury convicted three of the British Jihadists (Abdulla Ahmed Ali, Assad Sarwar, and Tanvir Hussain) – not because of their transatlantic jet plots, but because of their plots to attack British oil refineries and an electricity grid, Internet providers, and airports (including Heathrow Airport).
As reported by the Guardian, the British Jihadists that were convicted for conspiracy to murder were only held accountable for plots to "murder hundreds of Britons." As the London Times reported, the British "jury rejected the main charge made against the men that there was a plot to cause a series of explosions on airliners to rival the 9/11 attacks."
Americans need to understand that two years after British Jihadists plotted to attack transatlantic jets with liquid bombs headed to destinations such as New York City, Washington D.C., Chicago, and San Francisco – British jurors have essentially found such British Jihadists "not guilty" of such plots.
But the British jury was only concerned about other plots to attack British facilities in their homeland. This troubling news story that a British jury was unconvinced about this mass-casualty plot to kill thousands in flights headed to America will undoubtedly get little coverage by the mainstream media.
Americans should not be surprised by this British jury verdict. Two years ago, in my August 16, 2006 article "How The Road To Terror Leads Back To London," I pointed to multiple British news reports that quoted Britons and British Muslims that believed that the transatlantic airline plot was "make-believe," "propaganda," a "cover-up because of what's going on in Lebanon," a "lie," and a hoax.
Four British Jihadists involved in the transatlantic jet plot, Umar Islam, Waheed Zaman, Ibrahim Savant, and Arafat Waheed Khan, admitted to merely "conspiring to cause a public nuisance." One individual, Mohammed Gulzar, was found not guilty on all counts.
British Jihadist Umar Islam, whose "martyr video" specifically called for Jihad and "revenge" against the "USA," was not convicted of conspiracy to murder. Umar Islam explained that "[w]e are doing this in order to gain the pleasure of our Lord and Allah loves us to die and kill in his path."
British Jihadist Waheed Zaman, who stated that after such attacks "America... [should] have no cause for complaint..." because America deserved such punishment, was not convicted of conspiracy to murder.
British Jihadist Ibrahim Savant, who vowed that he "participate[s] within this blessed raid for - upon the enemies of blessed Islam," was not convicted of conspiracy to murder.
British Jihadist Arafat Waheed Khan, who promised that "[w]e will rain upon you such a terror and destruction that you will never feel peace and security.. [and that] there will be floods of martyrdom operations and bombs falling through your lands," was not convicted of conspiracy to murder.
In my August 31, 2008 article, I addressed the growing problem of British Islamic supremacism and its impact on American national security and American counterterrorism tactics. This September 8 ruling demonstrates again how serious that the United Kingdom remains as a security threat to the American homeland.
Perhaps this September 8th jury ruling will finally wake up Americans that British priorities are not ours:
-- three major British Jihadist plots / attempts for mass casualty terrorism on or impacting the American homeland (April 2001, December 2001, August 2006)
-- the continuing use of the UK as a base by Islamic supremacists
-- repeated reports of the UK's historical "covenant of security" with Islamic supremacists
-- UK Security Minister West calls for talks with Al-Qaeda and UK Defense Secretary Browne's calls for talks with the Taliban
-- British Jihadists openly praising 9/11 attackers
Now, a British jury ruling clearly communicates to British Jihadists – we won't convict you for planning attacks on jets headed towards the United States, but we will convict you if you plot attacks on the United Kingdom homeland. This will be interpreted as an open offer of a "covenant of security" to Islamic supremacists.
Three days before the 9/11 anniversary, this is an unambiguous signal regarding British attitudes regarding American security.
Perhaps it is past time for Americans to wake up and realize that a nation where Osama bin Laden sought to live is not going to have American national security interests as their priority. In June 2008, the Daily Telegraph reported that a plurality of Britons viewed America as a "force for evil."
The by the British jury on the British Jihadists behind the transatlantic jet plot has sent a very clear and inescapable message to America when it comes to punishing Jihadists that would seek to threaten America: "America, Drop Dead."
Israel’s senior ministers confer urgently on Iran as US masses air-naval might in Middle East waters
Prime minister Ehud Olmert summoned defense minister Ehud Barak and foreign minister Tzipi Livni for an urgent consultation on Iran Wed. Sept. 10, as the USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier headed out to the Mediterranean for missions “in support of maritime security.”
Its arrival will bring the number of US aircraft carriers in the Mediterranean, Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea to four, compared with two Russian warships.
Monday, Iran launched a three-day naval-air-missile exercise to practice defense tactics for its nuclear sites. ....In Hunt for Bin Laden, a New Approach
There has been no confirmed trace of bin Laden since he narrowly escaped from the CIA and the U.S. military after the battle near Tora Bora, Afghanistan, in December 2001, according to U.S., Pakistani and European officials. They said they are now concentrating on a short list of other al-Qaeda leaders who have been sighted more recently, in hopes that their footprints could lead to bin Laden. ....
Above all, they said, the search has been handicapped by an inability to develop informants in Pakistan's isolated tribal regions, where bin Laden is believed to be hiding. ....
Homeland Security goes on special alert
Meanwhile, agents are monitoring more than 20,000 suspected homegrown terrorists on the FBI's watchlist to prevent them from boarding commercial aircraft.
All of the individuals are American citizens or permanent legal residents "who have some relationship with terrorist activity," said Leonard Boyle, who heads the FBI's terrorism screening center in McLean, Va.
Homeland Security has programmed a computer system that screens inbound passengers for signs of terrorist activity to flag Turkish and other individuals whose passports show travel to Pakistan.
U.S. intelligence officials say jihadist websites indicate that hundreds of Turks have recently trained in al-Qaida camps in Pakistan, and may have sworn to carry out suicide operations against the West.
One website recently showed a martyrdom video of German-born Turk Saad Abu Furqan, who blew himself up outside a U.S. military base in Afghanistan.
Al-Qaida leaders in Pakistan have been creating cells with the mission of attacking Western targets, including the U.S., officials say. Osama bin Laden's deputy appeared in a video this week with a rifle propped up behind him. Officials are analyzing the tape for possible coded messages.
Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff has warned that al-Qaida is trying to exploit a security loophole created by the Visa Waiver Program to sneak terrorist muscle into the country.
Germans, Brits and other European passport holders are exempt from U.S. visa security checks under the program. Such travelers, who are entered into the system as "WT" or "WB," do not require a visa to enter the U.S.
At the same time, counterterrorism officials in New York are running down leads produced by last month's arrest and interrogation of al-Qaida operative Aafia Siddiqui, an MIT-educated microbiologist who fled to Pakistan after 9/11.
Siddiqui was found with a list of New York targets including the Empire State Building, Wall Street, the Brooklyn Bridge, Times Square, the Statue of Liberty and the subway system. Notes in her possession also included information about a mass attack and referred to construction of dirty bombs.
In addition, a computer flash drive found on Siddiqui referred to "attacks" by certain "cells."
Siddiqui is close to a Saudi-American considered by the FBI to be "the next Mohamed Atta." Adnan al-Shukrijumah, aka "Jafar the Pilot," allegedly conspired with al-Qaida dirty bomber Jose Padilla. Al-Shukrijumah is still at large.
WND has learned that customs and border agents are also taking a closer look at female Muslim travelers, and handicapped Muslim travelers and their aides.
Officials say the internal heightened alert extends through at least October and the end of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, and likely will continue on through Election Day.
The nation's public threat level remains at yellow, or "elevated." Officials say they have no specific credible information of a terrorist attack that would lead them to raise the threat level to orange, or "high," at this time.
Tuesday, September 9, 2008
US House Leaders Plan Vote on Big Foreign Worker Increase This Week -- Despite 5-Year Unemployment High
Here's another entry in the contest to find out whether many politicians are just stupid or are cynically evil:
- THE CRISIS: The feds announced last week that our official unemployment rate has soared to 6.1%, the highest since September 2003.
- THE CARING RESPONSE IN WORDS: Anticipating and reacting to the economic uncertainty in so many households, both Presidential Nominating Conventions were full of promises to help the beleaguered American worker.
- THE ACTUAL STAB IN THE BACK: But this week, we get to see what ACTIONS the politicians plan for us. First out of the blocks, the Democratic Leadership of the U.S. House of Representatives is responding this week by trying to shove through a bill -- H.R. 5882 -- which would provide about 550,000 permanent green cards to foreign workers next year. And those would be ABOVE the 1 million permanent green cards already planned!
Folks, this is not just rhetoric. This is the House leadership trying to pass this bill to permanently give away hundreds of thousands more American jobs to foreign workers.
Unless you make a phone call before Wednesday, this legislation is almost guaranteed to pass because it is backed by the richest, most powerful corporate lobbying interests in town, by the House Democratic leadership and by a large number of corporate-lobby-inspired Republicans. ....
Gearing Up to Strike Iran
Senior journalist Ben Caspit writes that “the debate between those who think everything must be done, including a military operation, to stop Iran from obtaining a nuclear bomb and those who think one can live with it, has been decided. If the Iranian regime doesn’t fall during the coming year, if the Americans don’t deliver a military blow and if the sanctions don’t break the Iranian nuclear program, Israel will have to take action. In other words: the preparations for an Israeli military option…are already underway.” ....
Somalia: the Next Challenge
Even the most assiduous news consumer would be hard pressed to find much mention of Somalia in discussions this election year about either foreign policy or counterterrorism. Indeed, most current attention is on Pakistan and Afghanistan as the epicenter of planning and organizing of jihadist attacks on US interests. A new report by the Washington, DC based think-tank Center for American Progress and Enough, a Brussels, Belgium based human rights group, however, argues that Somalia is fast and alarmingly becoming an incubator for a new generation of terrorists, in part due to self-defeating strategies of US counterterrorism efforts there.
The report, titled Somalia: A Country in Peril, a Foreign Policy Nightmare, is authored by Ken Menkhaus, a Davidson College professor who is regarded as one of the foremost US experts on the Horn of Africa. It portrays Somalia in a condition of rapid humanitarian, political and military meltdown. The fallout from this meltdown, Menkhaus believes, is likely to be an epidemic of Islamist extremism. Click here to see full report. ....
Neglect threatens infrastructure - US security chief
By Randall Mikkelsen
WASHINGTON, Sept 5 (Reuters) - The United States has increased security to protect its levees, dams and power grids from terrorists, but neglect of ordinary upkeep exposes such critical infrastructure to dangerous decay, the U.S. homeland security chief said on Friday.
Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff accused political leaders of playing a game of "musical chairs" by ignoring maintenance and needed upgrades and hoping facilities can avoid disaster until after they leave office.
"It's kind of like playing Russian roulette with our citizens' safety," Chertoff said in a speech at the Brookings Institution think tank. Private companies have shown a similar short-term attitude over infrastructure maintenance, he said.
"We've made a lot of progress in terms of these common goods, publicly owned and privately owned, when it comes to protecting them against terrorist attacks," Chertoff said.
"When it comes to making long-term investments simply to maintain things we rely upon ... we have failed time and again," he said.
A 2005 study by the American Society of Civil Engineers estimated it would cost $1.6 trillion over five years to bring U.S. physical infrastructure to acceptable levels. Other studies have also recommended spending more on maintenance.
But in a sign of the times, the Bush administration asked Congress on Friday for an immediate $8 billion to reimburse states for highway projects funded with federal gasoline taxes, which have slumped as American motorists drive less.
Chertoff encouraged states to follow the example of the federal anti-terrorism program and inventory infrastructure projects vulnerable to natural disasters. Strategies could then be drawn up for maintaining, reinforcing and protecting them.Long-term maintenance costs must also be considered in evaluating projects that might be to expensive to maintain.
"It's really about putting the common good first," he said.
Chertoff spoke during a week in which Hurricane Gustav's strike on New Orleans recalled the devastation of that city three years ago when Hurricane Katrina caused a main canal levee to break.
President George W. Bush's administration was heavily criticized for the slow Katrina relief efforts.
Chertoff said that during a visit to see New Orleans storm preparations last week, he viewed a huge steel gate installed after Katrina to protect the canal from rising waters on Lake Pontchartrain.
A proposal a decade earlier to install such a gate, when it could have preserved the city from Katrina, was scrapped due to local political opposition, he said.
Similarly, he said, vital Sacramento, California, levees remained at risk of "catastrophic failure," as opposition by local development officials and businesses concerned over the economic impact, delays upgrades to the flood-control system.
Chertoff also expressed frustration over difficulties getting oil companies to equip gasoline stations with emergency generators so they can keep operating in a widespread power outage -- a problem after Katrina that federal officials said recurred after Gustav. (Editing by Peter Cooney)
The Bakken oil formation and national security
This is a post from June 2, 2008. Yesterday, Bloomberg News published a story about some young oil developers and their rush to bring the Bakken oil formation, located in eastern Montana and western North Dakota, into major production.
The Bakken Formation has been a minor producer of crude oil for over a half century. What has increased this formation’s potential is the arrival of mature horizontal drilling technology, now combined with water fracturing recovery techniques. These techniques could turn the Bakken Formation from an inconsequential dud into perhaps the largest oil field on the planet.
How large? In an unpublished research paper he wrote while working as a geochemist at the U.S. Geological Survey, Mr. Leigh Price (who died in 2000) calculated a mean estimate of recoverable oil from Bakken at a stupendous 413 billion barrels. This compares to Saudi Arabia’s proven reserves of 267 billion barrels.
Mr. Price’s report did not receive a complete peer review and was not published as an official USGS study. As it happens, in April the USGS did publish an official estimate of Bakken’s potential. Based on recent exploratory efforts and current recovery technology, the current USGS mean estimate of recoverable oil from the Bakken Formation is 3.65 billion barrels, less than 1% of Mr. Price’s estimate from nearly a decade ago.
Isn’t this USGS report a severe letdown? Perhaps not. The USGS last studied the Bakken Formation in 1995. Using recovery technology in existence at that time, the USGS estimated Bakken’s potential at a mere 151 million barrels. With such low potential and crude oil prices relatively depressed at that time, it is easy to understand why Bakken was ignored.
The combination of data from new test wells and new recovery technology has caused the USGS to expand its estimate of Bakken’s potential by 25 times between 1995 and 2008. In its April report on Bakken, the USGS admitted that it has collected only very limited data from assessment areas surrounding the center of the Bakken Formation. There is a potential here for upside revisions as more test wells are drilled.
More importantly, Bakken’s expansion has been tied almost completely to improvements in drilling and recovery technology. Absent a breathtaking plunge in global crude oil prices, it is reasonable to assume that horizontal drilling and water fracturing recovery techniques will continue to advance in the years ahead, making recoverable even more of Bakken’s crude oil. Another 10-20 fold upgrade of Bakken’s potential would make it a peer of Saudi Arabia’s Ghawar field, currently the world’s largest.
Bakken has many other merits. Bakken’s crude is easy to refine. Unlike the Gulf Coast, Bakken is not vulnerable to weather or terror disruptions. Unlike Alaska, there are no geographical problems getting Bakken’s oil and gas to refineries and markets. Local politicians are enthusiastic backers of development and support plans to expand supporting infrastructure in the area.
Should Bakken live up to this hypothetical potential, the economic and national security implications would be significant. Production from the Bakken Formation could create a large positive swing in the U.S. balance of payments. This would open up decision-making flexibility for U.S. economic policymakers. And in the national security realm, future U.S. presidents would have more policy options available for their consideration as they contemplate problems such as Iran.
Long ignored, the Bakken Formation is now the hottest development in U.S. domestic oil exploration. Will it be the next Saudi Arabia? That remains hard to say. But it would take a tremendous oil price crash to prevent Bakken from being a significant development.
For additional information -- click here and here
Generals Behaving Badly
By WILLIAM MCGURN
When Abraham Lincoln famously sent word to Gen. George McClellan that he'd like to "borrow" the army if the general wasn't planning on using it, the commander of Union forces likely did not take it kindly. McClellan, after all, was a man whose letters home referred to Lincoln as an "idiot," "a well-meaning baboon" and other colorful language.
![[Main Street]](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/blogger_img_proxy/AEn0k_vdym8_8dX_6KTKmHvOYw8LuxpL3Qbhfd7QSgjkcqKQKF0u34Aoo9Fhe7LjbbxyDGLWuZsYWODPKTqTpm-njF7Q7FFh7wkSkWKFDHe19TgSyKIhUplF8Mn-fA74E9i64CrdKroxbyGSygRqYcHGp7Oc=s0-d) |
| AP |
| Gen. George Casey. |
In the first few pages of "The War Within," Bob Woodward opens with another presidential remark that offended another wartime general. This time the recipient was the commander of U.S. forces in Iraq, Gen. George Casey. During a videoconference with Baghdad, the president said, "George, we're not playing for a tie. I want to make sure we all understand this." Gen. Casey, Mr. Woodward writes, took this as "an affront to his dignity that he would long remember."
Whether or not Gen. Casey long remembered, "The War Within" makes clear his disdain for his commander in chief. If the views and remarks attributed to Gen. Casey are not accurate, Mr. Woodward has done him a grave injustice. If they are accurate, they come as further evidence of the obstacles President George W. Bush had to overcome to get his commanders to start winning in Iraq.
Opening with Gen. Casey also says something about Mr. Woodward. There's a case, I suppose, for using the general who opposed the surge to open what is hailed as the definitive account of that surge (not to mention using Robert McNamara, the Defense secretary who helped lose Vietnam to end the book). Surely, however, that would be the same case for wrapping the definitive account of the strategy that brought Robert E. Lee to Appomattox around Gen. McClellan.
Gen. Casey, after all, was the commander who all along maintained that the solution in Iraq was for America to draw down its forces -- even after the bombing of the Golden Mosque in Samarra. He was the commander who later that year was given his own chance to secure Baghdad with Operations Together Forward I and II, and failed. Most of all, he is the commander who was wrong when the president was right to insist that Baghdad could be secured and al Qaeda dealt a harsh blow with more troops.
Gen. Casey's continued adherence to a failed strategy does not make him a dishonorable man. It does make him an odd choice to serve as the foundation for the charge that the president was out of touch with the war. As evidence, both the general and the journalist point to questions about how many of the enemy we were killing as a sign that "the president did not get it."
Then again, maybe it's Gen. Casey and Mr. Woodward who did not get it. The questions the president asked were driven by something everyone in the West Wing worried about. Every night for years, Americans tuning into the evening news were greeted by the same image from Iraq: a burning car or Humvee, accompanied by a fresh report about soldiers or Marines who'd been blown up by an improvised explosive device or suicide bomb.
Nor did these images exist in a vacuum. A media obsessed with body counts featured grim roll calls of the dead, marking each macabre "milestone" -- 1,500 war dead, 2,000 war dead -- along the way. In this context, was it really unreasonable for a president to ask his commander on the ground if we were fighting back, when it sure didn't look that way to the American people?
The same might be said of the one truly original take offered by Mr. Woodward. This is his curious assertion that it's not the surge that has produced the great reduction in violence in Iraq. The reduced violence, he says, is the result of the increased lethality of covert operations against terrorist leaders and operatives.
Which brings up two interesting points. First, we are led to find fault with a president allegedly obsessed with a "kill the bastards" approach to Iraq. But then we are asked to accept that the reason we're now seeing success in Iraq because we're . . . killing the bastards.
Second, the surge was a shift in mission, not simply an addition of five brigades. Until the surge, we had pursued a political solution, hoping that the answer to Iraq was the rise of a democratic government that would persuade Iraqis to come together for their future. The surge, by contrast, finally recognized the obvious: Until Iraqis started feeling safe in their own homes and neighborhoods, there would be no compromise or rebuilding.
Sophisticates have never liked Mr. Bush for his preference for words like "win" and "victory" to describe what America is trying to do in Iraq. And if Mr. Woodward's latest contribution is any clue, they'll never forgive him for doing something even worse: proving it can be done.
Together Again
Our commitment to freedom
PRAGUE, The Czech Republic.
Neville Chamberlain once called the nation of which this city was the capital in 1938, "a faraway country" with "people of whom we know nothing." With those words, he reneged on Britain's alliance with Czechoslovakia, abandoning it to Adolf Hitler's quest for "breathing room" for the German people and the rest, as they say, is history.
In recent months, the United States has undertaken important new security commitments with the Czech Republic and Poland in the face of emerging threats to those countries, the rest of Europe and indeed the Free World more generally from a regime whose aspirations are arguably even more ominous than those of the Nazis: the Islamic Republic of Iran.
After all, the mullahocracy of Iran seeks, in the words of its front man, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, to bring about the return of the 12th Imam, a messianic figure known in Shi'ite Iran as the Mahdi. The trouble is, according to the ayatollahs, the precondition to the Mahdi's ushering in of the golden age of Islam is something that sounds a lot like the apocalypse.
As a result, it is advisable to take seriously threats issuing forth with great regularity from Tehran to the effect that Israel will be "wiped off the map" and that it is "desirable and achievable" to bring about "a world without America." Iranian ballistic missiles have demonstrated the ability to reach distant targets like Tel Aviv, parts of the European Continent and, if launched from ships, the United States.
If used to detonate nuclear weapons in space over targeted nations, such missiles could unleash electromagnetic pulse (EMP) attacks, resulting in widespread destruction of electrical grids and what a congressional commission has described as the "catastrophic" disruption of civilizations reliant upon them. A world without America could be the practical result of such a strategic EMP attack here, as the United States is reduced to a pre-industrial society.
Against such a threat, the Bush administration has begun to put into place modest anti-missile defenses. Deployed ashore in Alaska and California and aboard a growing number of naval vessels, these systems afford some protection against certain ballistic missile-delivered attacks on the United States.
The United States has also concluded agreements with the governments of Poland and the Czech Republic that will allow the fielding of 10 land-based interceptors and an X-band radar, respectively, in the two nations. These systems will extend very limited missile defenses to our allies in Europe and permit some additional capability to intercept future intercontinental-range Iranian missiles aimed at the United States.
These benefits will accrue, however, only if the Congress agrees to fund such deployments and the associated military construction. As of this writing, Democrats in the House of Representatives have declined to do so. Thankfully, a Republican member of the House Appropriations Committee, Rep. Mark Kirk of Illinois, will offer Tuesday an amendment designed to honor America's commitment to its European allies and provide the protection they and we need at an absolute minimum.
The Kirk amendment has taken on greater urgency in the aftermath of Russia's recent, devastating invasion of another "faraway country" - the sovereign, democratic and pro-Western republic of Georgia. Even though the Polish-based interceptors and the radar in the Czech Republic represent no threat to Moscow's ability to destroy Europe should it choose to do so, Vladimir Putin is determined to try to stop their deployment.
The Kremlin has gone so far as to threaten nuclear attacks on the basing countries if they proceed with their efforts to defend themselves and others from the menace posed by Moscow's ally, Iran.
It appears Mr. Putin hopes to engineer a "re-do" of the 1983 deployment of U.S. ground-launched cruise missiles and Pershing II ballistic missiles in five West European countries. Back then, the NATO alliance held firm in the face of an all-out Soviet campaign to block the basing of such weapons and destabilize the governments involved. The failure of that campaign marked the beginning of the end of the Soviet Union, an event Mr. Putin mourns as the "greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century" and one he evidently seeks to reverse.
It would be unconscionable for the Congress now to give Mr. Putin - fresh from his rape of Georgia - a new and far more strategic victory by denying the funds needed to implement the missile defense agreements with Poland and the Czech Republic. Not only would doing so assure that Europe remained vulnerable to nuclear blackmail, or worse, from Iran. Not only would it deny the United States additional protection from Iranian missiles intended to bring about a world with this country.
A refusal to take the corrective action proposed by Mark Kirk would signal that the West, once again, views with indifference the security concerns of our allies. It will encourage the belief in Moscow and elsewhere that our time's most powerful democracy will, like its predecessor 70 years ago, abandon its friends to the appetites of their rapacious neighbors.
The vote in the Appropriations Committee Tuesday is an opportunity to demonstrate instead to our friends here in Prague, to America's allies around the world and to our actual and prospective foes that, despite the intense partisanship of this election season, Democrats and Republicans alike will honor our national commitments and stand together in defense of freedom.
U.S. plans $7 billion missile-defense sale to UAE
By Jim Wolf
WASHINGTON, Sept 8 - The Bush administration is planning to sell the United Arab Emirates an advanced U.S. missile defense system valued at up to $7 billion that could be used to defend against Iran, people who have attended briefings on the matter said on Monday.
The Pentagon is set to notify the U.S. Congress of the proposed sale, which would be the first of the so-called Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD, ...."The UAE has been concerned for many years about possible retaliation against it for U.S. or Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear facilities," ....
THAAD is the first missile defense system designed to defend against short- and intermediate-range ballistic missiles both inside and outside the Earth's atmosphere.
The potential $7 billion sale would include anti-missile interceptors, firing units, associated radar sites and training, among other things, ....U.S. still vulnerable to attacks
By Brett J. Blackledge and Eileen Sullivan
WASHINGTON AP — The United States remains "dangerously vulnerable" to chemical, biological and nuclear attacks seven years after 9/11, a forthcoming independent study concludes. And a House Democrats' report says the Bush administration has missed one opportunity after another to improve the nation's security.
The recent political rupture between Russia and the U.S. only makes matters worse, said Lee Hamilton, the former Indiana Democratic congressman who helped lead the 9/11 Commission and now chairs the independent group's latest study.
Efforts to reduce access to nuclear technology and bomb-making materials have slowed, thousands of U.S. chemical plants remain unprotected, and the U.S. government continues to oppose strengthening an international treaty to prevent bioterrorism, according to the report produced by the bipartisan Partnership for a Secure America.
The group includes leaders of the disbanded 9/11 Commission, the bipartisan panel that investigated government missteps before the 2001 terror attacks on the United States.
"The threat of a new, major terrorist attack on the United States is still very real," concludes the report to be released Wednesday, the same day a congressional commission will hold a hearing in New York on nuclear and biological terrorism threats.
"A nuclear, chemical or biological weapon in the hands of terrorists remains the single greatest threat to our nation. While progress has been made in securing these weapons and materials, we are still dangerously vulnerable," the report said.
Congressional Democrats, meanwhile, had harsher criticism of the Bush administration's efforts. Their report found little or no progress across the board on national security initiatives.
"The Bush administration has not delivered on a myriad of critical homeland and national security mandates," the Democrats' report states. That report was being released Tuesday.
"The administration has just failed to act in so many ways," said Rep. Bennie Thompson, D-Miss. "Let's say that we've been fortunate that we have not been attacked" since 2001, said Thompson, who chairs the House Homeland Security Committee.
The independent report focuses narrowly on weapons of mass destruction.
The report and supporting studies describe the failure of international cooperation to prevent terrorists from obtaining weapons of mass destruction, which they call a major problem. Many countries continue to ignore a United Nations mandate to prevent the spread of weapons; the ability of many countries to monitor potential bioterrorism is "essentially nonexistent," and dangerous chemical weapons stockpiles remain in some countries, including Russia and Libya, the report said.
Russia has been a significant player in U.S. efforts to secure nuclear weapons and to eliminate inventories of chemical weapons in the former Soviet region. That cooperation could be jeopardized as the two countries face off over the Russian invasion of Georgia and concerns about a U.S. missile defense base in Poland, Hamilton said.
Bush on Monday Bush on canceled a civilian nuclear cooperation deal with Russia.
"The things we do to penalize Russia will make it more difficult for us to deal with Russia on other matters," Hamilton said.
State Department spokesman Robert Wood said he hasn't seen the report. But he said there have been a number of successes in recent years, including negotiations to dismantle North Korea's nuclear program and Libya's agreement to end its nuclear and chemical weapons program.
"We have been engaged multilaterally with a number of countries to deal with this issue of weapons of mass destruction," Wood said.
Wood said he also has not seen the Democrats' report. "I fundamentally reject the charge that the administration has made the world less safe from terrorism," he said.
House Democrats also blasted Bush policy in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Saudi Arabia as damaging to national security. U.S. efforts to combat terrorists in Pakistan have suffered because of "unyielding support for a military dictator"; Iraq has drained resources from the fight in Afghanistan, and Saudi Arabia continues to serve "as a major source of terrorist activity," the Democrats' report states.
The independent study, however, did credit the Bush administration with progress in a number of areas. It cited improved U.S. port security, reduction of military chemical stockpiles, increased U.S. funding for securing nuclear weapons sites in Russia and new international programs aimed at preventing crimes involving biological weapons.Click here for additional information
Monday, September 8, 2008
Corsi rebuts Obama's 'Unfit for Publication'
Obama: Terror groups have 'legitimate claims'
Asserts U.S. needs foreign policy that 'looks at the root causes of problems'
Al Qaeda’s Surge in Algeria
J.Peter Pham, PhD
Consider that Algeria currently supplies Europe with approximately 15% of the continent’s natural gas consumption and is also an important petroleum producer, pumping about 1.46 million barrels of oil daily. With recent Russian actions underscoring Europe’s dependence on imported energy, any disruption of the Algerian hydrocarbon exports would have a devastating impact on European economies. (During the first six months of this year, Algeria also exported a monthly average of 16.24 million barrels of oil to the United States, making it America’s seventh most important foreign supplier.)
Sunday, September 7, 2008
Pakistan's double game exposed
Regular readers of Jihad Watch have known for years that Musharraf and Co. were talking out of both sides of their mouths, pledging support for the war on terror on the one hand while aiding the jihadists on the other. Now direct and abundant confirmation of this comes from, of all places, The New York Times.
"Right at the Edge," by Dexter Filkins, September 7: ....
ZUMWALT: The next president's next war
(Compiler's note: Must read! rca)
By James G. Zumwalt, a Marine veteran of the Persian Gulf and Vietnam wars, is a contributor to The Washington Times.
With both parties' U.S. presidential and vice presidential nominees now set, American voters have their last opportunity to decide whether Democrats or Republicans can field the team best qualified to meet the challenges of the next four to eight years.
Voters' primary concern in November should be the war - but not the one in Iraq or Afghanistan. It is the unavoidable war, already begun but not yet fully fought, that will be fully fought within the next one to two presidential terms. Our votes later this year will determine if we are prepared to do so.
This unavoidable war will be with Iran. Every American voter should understand this before casting a ballot. Every voter should understand the theocratic leadership in Tehran is of one dominant mindset. The mullahs, led by the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and current president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who serves at the former's call, are committed to developing a nuclear weapon for Iran. Mr. Ahmadinejad has made his convictions on this clear. An Islamist zealot, he believes the 12th imam will return to lead Islam to world domination. As the 12th imam can only return after global cataclysmic chaos, Mr. Ahmadinejad believes he must become the vehicle for creating this chaos. (As Tehran's mayor prior to becoming president, Mr. Ahmadinejad so convinced of the 12th imam's return - widened some city streets for the welcoming parade.) In 2006, observers at the United Nations heard Mr. Ahmadinejad pray to the 12th imam before delivering his speech.
When one understands all this, factoring in Mr. Ahmadinejad's past warnings about wiping Israel off the map and his lack of intimidation over retaliatory U.S./Israeli nuclear strikes (rationalizing the deaths of any Muslim victims will expedite their journey to an afterlife of rewards for their sacrifice), one understands why war with Iran is inevitable.
When Mr. Ahmadinejad's term in office ends in August 2009, he is eligible to run for re-election. And, in Iran, where presidential election outcomes are known ahead of time by the supreme leader, Mr. Ahmadinejad, absent a flagrant act of disloyalty, will remain in office through August 2013. This is more than sufficient time, by any conservative estimate, to make final Iran's development of its first nuclear weapons.
How will war with Iran start? Three likely scenarios follow.
(1) Least likely regardless of who wins the next presidential election, the United States, having been ineffective in numerous diplomatic efforts, gives Iran a final warning to stop its nuclear weapons development, followed by surgical strikes against its nuclear facilities.
(2) Israel, realizing its survival is threatened, conducts a pre-emptive strike against Tehran to knock out its nuclear development capability. This scenario is gaining momentum. Should such an attack - which Israel has already practiced - happen, the consequences to the United States, from Iran's perspective, would be the same as if the United States had initiated the attack itself. And this scenario may receive renewed focus in view of Democratic vice-presidential nominee Joe Biden's recent defeatist comments to Israeli officials. As Barack Obama's supposed foreign policy "expert," Mr. Biden said, "Israel will have to reconcile itself with the nuclearization of Iran. ... It is doubtful economic sanctions will be effective, and I am against opening an additional military and diplomatic front." Israel is running out of options.
(3) Most likely, having developed nuclear weapons as the United States and Israel stood by, Iran will conduct a coordinated nuclear attack on Israel and terrorist nuclear/EMP (Electromagnetic Pulse) attack upon the U.S. - to await a retaliatory strike by both countries. (Having lost any land-based capability to strike back but with its submarine fleet intact, Israel will still have a sub-surface capability to do so). As the United States reels from this devastating hit and Israel ceases to exist as was forewarned, Mr. Ahmadinejad, much as Emperor Nero was said to have done as Rome lay burning, will simply fiddle away his time. Awaiting the doom on Iran his actions will have wrought, Mr. Ahmadinejad will smile, firmly believing the 12th imam's return to be imminent and that Mr. Ahmadinejad's destiny to lead the imam home will be recognized.
Only by our next president aggressively taking very focused diplomatic steps is there any possibility war will be avoided. These steps, coordinated with our allies where possible, include maximizing economic sanctions against Iran, unleashing the Iranian MEK opposition group Tehran fears most by removing them from the State Department's terrorist list and rearming them, funding all such Iranian opposition groups and taking whatever other actions are necessary to effect regime change in Tehran.
While most Americans fail to grasp it, the war with Iran unilaterally began three decades ago. The Islamic extremists who took power there in 1979 embarked upon a jihad which since then has claimed hundreds of U.S. citizens' lives. We have failed to fight this war as it continues today in Iraq, where Iran's Islamic Republican Guard Corps' (IRGC) elite Quds unit is actively killing Americans.
Against this backdrop, Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama has proven himself dangerously naive about Iran. In 2007, he refused to support a nonbinding Senate resolution which recommended IRGC be designated a terrorist organization as he erroneously believed passage would authorize war with Iran. Too busy campaigning instead of voting on an immensely important issue to future world stability, Mr. Obama failed to vote, condemning the resolution as "excessively provocative." Instead of condemning the IRGC, Mr. Obama introduced legislation specifying use of force against Iran is unauthorized by any previous act of Congress. Instead of keeping all arrows in our diplomatic options quiver to stop Iranian aggression, Mr. Obama sought to remove a critical one.
Also against this backdrop while campaigning earlier, Mr. Obama said he would meet with Mr. Ahmadinejad - without preconditions. Yet the one precondition to a meeting upon which all our allies agree is that Tehran stop its uranium enrichment program. Even Mr. Obama's not-yet-selected vice presidential running mate at the time, Sen. Joe Biden, criticized Mr. Obama's suggestion. And, his willingness to talk with Mr. Ahmadinejad suggests Mr. Obama naively sees him as rational - rather than the religious fanatic he is, undeterred about creating the world chaos he seeks.
November's U.S. presidential election will seal America's fate. The inevitable confrontation with Iran will boil over during the next president's term. This is a time in which we can ill afford inexperienced leadership.
Muslims ripped off by CAIR
Washington-based Council on American-Islamic Relations, which claims to represent the interests of American Muslims, allegedly defrauded a number of Muslims recently seeking help with citizenship delays, and then threatened to sue them if they complained to the media, according to a security watchdog group which has obtained internal CAIR documents.
The former legal director of CAIR's Maryland/Virginia chapter shook down Muslim hardship cases for thousands of dollars without providing promised services, officials with the Mapping Sharia Project charge.
CAIR, a nonprofit group, promoted the services of the employee, Morris L. "Jamil" Days, whom it publicly described as a civil-rights attorney, even after discovering Days was unlicensed and was fraudulently representing CAIR's clients.
CAIR's board allegedly covered up the scandal by paying defrauded Muslim families partial restitution payments while insisting they sign agreements releasing CAIR from legal liability, officials said.
The release threatens to sue them for "damages in the amount of $25,000 for the purpose of conducting meetings, workshops, press releases, flyers and the like to reverse ... the damage to CAIR's reputation caused by the recipient's breach" of the agreement to remain silent about the "incident." ....
Vladimir Putin Set To Bait US With Nuclear Aid For Iran
By the National Terror Alert Response Center
Russia is considering increasing its assistance to Iran’s nuclear program in response to America’s calls for Nato expansion eastwards and the presence of US Navy vessels in the Black Sea delivering aid to Georgia.
The Kremlin is discussing sending teams of Russian nuclear experts to Tehran and inviting Iranian nuclear scientists to Moscow for training, according to sources close to the Russian military.
Moscow has been angered by Washington’s promise to give Georgia £564m in aid following the Russian invasion of parts of the country last month after Tbilisi’s military offensive. Kremlin officials suspect the US is planning to rearm the former Soviet republic and is furious at renewed support for attempts by Georgia and Ukraine to join Nato.
Last week a third US Navy ship entered the Black Sea with aid bound for Georgia. Moscow has accused the Americans of using the vessels to deliver weapons but has failed to provide any evidence.
Vladimir Putin, the prime minister of Russia, who has been the driving force during the crisis, has declared he will take unspecified action in response.
“Everything has changed since the war in Georgia,” said one source. “What seemed impossible before, is more than possible now when our friends become our enemies and our enemies our friends. What are American ships doing off our coast? Do you see Russian warships off the coast of America?
“Russia will respond. A number of possibilities are being considered, including hitting America there where it hurts most – Iran.”
Increasing nuclear assistance to Iran would sharply escalate tensions between Moscow and Washington. Over the past 10 years Russia has helped Iran build its first nuclear power station in Bushehr. Iran claims the plant is for civilian purposes. Officially at least, Moscow accepts that. The West has little doubt the aim is to build a nuclear bomb.
