Obama faces tough choices on Afghanistan

.... At a time when the US president is under acute pressure to rein in a huge US fiscal deficit and when the Pentagon is severely overstretched, another hefty troop request would be hard to satisfy.

Yet it would be even harder to turn down. Having sacked David McKiernan, the previous military commander in Afghanistan, and replaced him with David McChrystal, Mr Obama is beholden to the thinking on the ground. Gen McChrystal, an expert in the troop-intensive ways of fighting counter-insurgencies, is readying a much-awaited assessment report, which is expected to include a request for at least another 10,000 troops. In fact, there are credible rumours that Gen McChrystal could even be planning to ask for as many as 20,000 to 30,000 more. Any such request would be likely to get the backing of David Petraeus, the head of Central Command, which oversees Afghanistan, and author of the counter-insurgency troop surge in Iraq.

It would also meet with the approval of most experts, who point out that the ratio of troops to population in Afghanistan is too low to guarantee success. The history of counter-insurgencies also suggests it takes 12 to 14 years to succeed. Given the shifting nature of the Bush administration’s efforts in Afghanistan, 2009 should be dated as year one of the counter-insurgency, rather than year eight.

All of which will put Mr Obama in a quandary. As the US troop presence grows, so too does the cost of America’s efforts in Afghanistan. .... There are no easy exit strategies from the policy Mr Obama has embraced. ....